Emissions from melting permafrost could cost $43 trillion

sc604 — Mon, 21 Sep 2015 15:00:00 +0000

Increased greenhouse gas emissions from the release of carbon dioxide and methane contained in the Arctic permafrost could result in $43 trillion in additional economic damage by the end of the next century, according to researchers from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and the ̽��ֱ�� of Colorado.

In a letter published today (21 September) in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers have for the first time modelled the economic impact caused by melting permafrost in the Arctic to the end of the twenty-second century, on top of the damage already predicted by climate and economic models.

̽��ֱ��Arctic is warming at a rate which is twice the global average, due to anthropogenic, or human-caused, greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue to rise at their current rates, Arctic warming will lead to the widespread thawing of permafrost and the release of hundreds of billions of tonnes of methane and CO₂ – about 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon are held in permafrost soils in the form of frozen organic matter.

Rising emissions will result in both economic and non-economic impacts, as well as a higher chance of catastrophic events, such as the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, increased flooding and extreme weather. Economic impacts directly affect a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), such as the loss of agricultural output and the additional cost of air conditioning, while non-economic impacts include effects on human health and ecosystems.

̽��ֱ��researchers’ models predict $43 trillion in economic damage could be caused by the release of these greenhouse gases, an amount equivalent to more than half the current annual output of the global economy. This brings the total predicted impact of climate change by 2200 to $369 trillion, up from $326 trillion – an increase of 13 percent.

“These results show just how much we need urgent action to slow the melting of the permafrost in order to minimise the scale of the release of greenhouse gases,” said co-author Dr Chris Hope from the Cambridge Judge Business School.

Hope’s calculations were conducted in collaboration with Kevin Schaefer of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the ̽��ֱ�� of Colorado.

Hope and Schaefer used the PAGE09 (Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect) integrated assessment model to measure the economic impact of permafrost thawing on top of previous calculations of the climate change costs of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“We want to use these models to help us make better decisions – linking scientific and economic models together is a way to help us do that,” said Hope. “We need to estimate how much it will cost if we do nothing, how much it will cost if we do something, and how much we need to spend to cut back greenhouse gases.”

̽��ֱ��researchers say that if an aggressive strategy to reduce emissions from thawing permafrost is adopted, it could reduce the impact by as much as $37 trillion.

Reference:
Hope, C. and Schaefer, K. ‘Economic impacts of carbon dioxide and methane released from thawing permafrost’. Nature Climate Change (2015). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2807

New analysis of the effects of melting permafrost in the Arctic points to $43 trillion in extra economic damage by the end of the next century, on top of the more than the $300 trillion economic damage already predicted.

These results show just how much we need urgent action to slow the melting of the permafrost in order to minimise the scale of the release of greenhouse gases

Chris Hope

Steve Jurvetson

Not so Permafrost

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̽��ֱ��future of the planet

sc604 — Mon, 13 Jan 2014 08:00:00 +0000

Global problems call for global solutions, and Dr Chris Hope’s PAGE2002 model is just that. A method for estimating the economic impact of climate change, it’s been used by governments worldwide, the IMF and other international organisations, since its original inception in 2002.

̽��ֱ��impact of Hope’s work has been fundamental. ̽��ֱ��2007 Stern Review on the economic impact of climate change chose PAGE2002 as its sole model to estimate the impact of climate change in money terms. Unsurprising, then, that the Financial Times hailed Dr Hope an unsung hero for showing “that you can save the planet while keeping the economy healthy”.

Back in 1991, when Dr Hope began the research that would eventually lead to PAGE2002, his aims were simple.

"I wanted to help governments and other decision makers decide what would be a good policy for dealing with climate change, and to use the best information from science and economics to give them the evidence to make those decisions,” he says. “There was a lot that we didn’t know at the time and don’t know now. Therefore, you have to give advice which helps people to decide how to tackle the risks and weigh up the rewards that you get from measures which might reduce the risk, and prevent something bad happening in the future."

̽��ֱ��result was PAGE2002. It simulates using the best scientific information linking greenhouse gas emissions and climate, calculates how climate change costs could develop in the future, and estimates the costs and benefits of climate change policies, such as emissions taxes.

̽��ֱ��model captures all five of the ‘reasons for concern’ listed by the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report – risks to unique and threatened ecosystems, risks from extreme climate events, distribution of impacts, aggregate impacts, and, finally, risks from future large-scale discontinuities.

" ̽��ֱ��IPCC used very neutral language,” says Dr Hope. “They used ‘discontinuities’ but most people would think of these as being real catastrophes, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or the West Antarctic ice sheet, setting in train a sea level rise of 10 or 15 metres. That would redraw the world map."

̽��ֱ��Stern Review’s results – that climate change would have a far greater impact on economies than previously thought – made headlines across the globe and gave rise to a general shift in thinking about the issue. “ ̽��ֱ��resulting estimates were a crucial part … [and] are certainly the most cited part of the Review, not only in academia but also in the policy and public debate,” says Dr Simon Dietz of the Stern team.

Since the Stern Review, PAGE2002 has been used across the globe: by the UK government’s Eliasch Review to calculate the costs and benefits of actions to reduce global deforestation; by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to work out the marginal impact of one tonne of CO2 emissions; and by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose calculations using the PAGE2002 model form the basis for their guidance on carbon pricing.

But the model, like the climate itself, does not stand still. It is updated whenever the IPCC delivers a new report every six or seven years – PAGE2002 was actually the third version. ̽��ֱ��newest version, PAGE09, has been used for analyses since 2010, and is the source of the US EPA’s latest numbers for their price on carbon dioxide.

“There’s always new information coming from the scientists and the economists,” says Dr Hope. “You have to make sure that you’re up-to-date and relevant, and transmitting that information to policymakers in as useful a way as possible. For example, I’m currently collaborating with Arctic scientists and others to incorporate the fact that Arctic ice has been melting a lot faster than people had expected, and that might then lead to more release of greenhouse gases. These gases don’t just stay in the Arctic. They could lead to, say, more flooding in Bangladesh."

“We want to try and include that into the model in a better way, to see what effect it will have on the rest of the world. All this stuff is still ongoing. You never say that you’ve made it perfect and you’re going to stop.”

Dr Chris Hope’s PAGE2002 model has been used worldwide to calculate the true cost of climate change.

You have to give advice which helps people to decide how to tackle the risks and weigh up the rewards that you get from measures which might reduce the risk, and prevent something bad happening in the future

Chris Hope

United Nations Photo via flickr

Climate Change Effects in Island Nation of Kiribati

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Emissions from melting permafrost could cost $43 trillion

̽��ֱ��future of the planet