̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge - Chris Gilligan

Early warning tool will help control huge locust swarms

jg533 — Thu, 19 Dec 2024 19:00:34 +0000

Desert locusts typically lead solitary lives until something - like intense rainfall - triggers them to swarm in vast numbers, often with devastating consequences.

This migratory pest can reach plague proportions, and a swarm covering one square kilometre can consume enough food in one day to feed 35,000 people. Such extensive crop destruction pushes up local food prices and can lead to riots and mass starvation.

Now a team led by the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge has developed a way to predict when and where desert locusts will swarm, so they can be dealt with before the problem gets out of hand.

It uses weather forecast data from the UK Met Office, and state-of the-art computational models of the insects’ movements in the air, to predict where swarms will go as they search for new feeding and breeding grounds. ̽��ֱ��areas likely to be affected can then be sprayed with pesticides.

Until now, predicting and controlling locust swarms has been ‘hit and miss’, according to the researchers. Their new model, published today in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, will enable national agencies to respond quickly to a developing locust threat.

Desert locust control is a top priority for food security: it is the biggest migratory pest for smallholder farmers in many regions of Africa and Asia, and capable of long-distance travel across national boundaries.

Climate change is expected to drive more frequent desert locust swarms, by causing trigger events like cyclones and intense rainfall. These bring moisture to desert regions that allows plants to thrive, providing food for locusts that triggers their breeding.

“During a desert locust outbreak we can now predict where swarms will go several days in advance, so we can control them at particular sites. And if they’re not controlled at those sites, we can predict where they’ll go next so preparations can be made there,” said Dr Renata Retkute, a researcher in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and first author of the paper.

“ ̽��ֱ��important thing is to respond quickly if there’s likely to be a big locust upsurge, before it causes a major crop loss. Huge swarms can lead to really desperate situations where people could starve,” said Professor Chris Gilligan in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, senior author of the paper.

He added: “Our model will allow us to hit the ground running in future, rather than starting from scratch as has historically been the case.”

̽��ֱ��team noticed the need for a comprehensive model of desert locust behaviour during the response to a massive upsurge over 2019-2021, which extended from Kenya to India and put huge strain on wheat production in these regions. ̽��ֱ��infestations destroyed sugarcane, sorghum, maize and root crops. ̽��ֱ��researchers say the scientific response was hampered by the need to gather and integrate information from a range of disparate sources.

“ ̽��ֱ��response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest,” said Retkute.

Although models like this have been attempted before, this is the first that can rapidly and reliably predict swarm behaviour. It takes into account the insects’ lifecycle and their selection of breeding sites, and can forecast locust swarm movements both short and long-term.

̽��ֱ��new model has been rigorously tested using real surveillance and weather data from the last major locust upsurge. It will inform surveillance, early warning, and management of desert locust swarms by national governments, and international organisations like the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).

̽��ֱ��researchers say countries that haven’t experienced a locust upsurge in many years are often ill-prepared to respond, lacking the necessary surveillance teams, aircraft and pesticides. As climate change alters the movement and spread of major swarms, better planning is needed - making the new model a timely development.

̽��ֱ��project involved collaborators at the FAO and the UK Met Office. It was funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reference: Retkute, R, et al: ‘A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal.’ PLOS Computational Biology, December 2024. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012562

A new tool that predicts the behaviour of desert locust populations will help national agencies to manage huge swarms before they devastate food crops in Africa and Asia.

̽��ֱ��response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest.

Renata Retkute

Keith Cressman, FAO

Locust swarm fills the skies in Ethiopia

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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Predicting threats to food security

cg605 — Wed, 22 Feb 2023 09:23:37 +0000

How mathematical modelling can prevent crop devastation and preserve livelihoods.

Widespread use of control measures such as facemasks is vital to suppress the pandemic as lockdown lifts, say scientists

jg533 — Tue, 30 Mar 2021 23:01:00 +0000

̽��ֱ��model, developed by scientists at the Universities of Cambridge and Liverpool, is published today in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface. It uses mathematical equations to provide general insights about how COVID-19 will spread under different potential control scenarios.

Control measures involving facemasks, handwashing and short-scale (1-2 metre) social distancing can all limit the number of virus particles being spread between people. These are termed ‘non spatial’ measures to distinguish them from a second category of ‘spatial’ control measures that include lockdown and travel restrictions, which reduce how far virus particles can spread. ̽��ֱ��new model compares the efficacy of different combinations of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19, and shows how non-spatial control needs to be ramped up as lockdown is lifted.

“More effective use of control measures like facemasks and handwashing would help us to stop the pandemic faster, or to get better results in halting transmission through the vaccination programme. This also means we could avoid another potential lockdown,” said Dr Yevhen Suprunenko, a Research Associate in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences and first author of the paper. ̽��ֱ��authors stress that their predictions rely on such non-spatial control measures being implemented effectively.

̽��ֱ��model also considered the socio-economic impact of both types of measure, and how this changes during the pandemic. ̽��ֱ��socio-economic consequences of spatial measures such as lockdown have increased over time, while the cost of non-spatial control measures has decreased -for example, facemasks have become more widely available and people have become used to wearing them.

“Measures such as lockdowns that limit how far potentially infected people move can have a stronger impact on controlling the spread of disease, but methods that reduce the risk of transmission whenever people mix provide an inexpensive way to supplement them,” said Dr Stephen Cornell at the ̽��ֱ�� of Liverpool, co-author of the paper.

̽��ֱ��model arose from a broader research programme to identify control strategies for plant diseases threatening staple crops. By using a mathematical approach rather than a conventional computer simulation model, the authors were able to identify - for a wide range of scenarios - general insights on how to deal with newly emerging infectious diseases of plants and animals.

“Our new model will help us study how different infectious diseases can spread and become endemic. This will enable us to find better control strategies, and stop future epidemics faster and more efficiently,” said Professor Chris Gilligan in the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences, co-author of the paper.

Part of this research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reference

Suprunenko, Y.F. et al: ‘Analytical approximation for invasion and endemic thresholds, and the optimal control of epidemics in spatially explicit individual-based models.’ J.R.Soc. Interface, March 2021. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0966

A new mathematical model suggests that the easing of lockdown must be accompanied by wider and more effective use of control measures such as facemasks, even with vaccination, in order to suppress COVID-19 more quickly and reduce the likelihood of another lockdown.

More effective use of control measures like facemasks and handwashing would help us to stop the pandemic faster.

Yevhen Suprunenko

Kobby Mendez on Unsplash

Man putting on a facemask

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Images, including our videos, are Copyright © ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge and licensors/contributors as identified. All rights reserved. We make our image and video content available in a number of ways – as here, on our main website under its Terms and conditions, and on a range of channels including social media that permit your use and sharing of our content under their respective Terms.

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Widespread facemask use could shrink the ‘R’ number and prevent a second COVID-19 wave – study

fpjl2 — Wed, 10 Jun 2020 07:22:07 +0000

Population-wide use of facemasks keeps the coronavirus ‘reproduction number’ under 1.0, and prevents further waves of the virus when combined with lockdowns, a modelling study led by the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge suggests.

̽��ֱ��research suggests that lockdowns alone will not stop the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2, and that even homemade masks with limited effectiveness can dramatically reduce transmission rates if worn by enough people, regardless of whether they show symptoms.

̽��ֱ��researchers call for information campaigns across wealthy and developing nations alike that appeal to our altruistic side: 'my facemask protects you, your facemask protects me'. ̽��ֱ��findings are published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society A.

“Our analyses support the immediate and universal adoption of facemasks by the public,” said lead author Dr Richard Stutt, part of a team that usually models the spread of crop diseases at Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences.

“If widespread facemask use by the public is combined with physical distancing and some lockdown, it may offer an acceptable way of managing the pandemic and reopening economic activity long before there is a working vaccine.”

Dr Renata Retkute, coauthor and Cambridge team member, said: “ ̽��ֱ��UK government can help by issuing clear instructions on how to make and safely use homemade masks.”

“We have little to lose from the widespread adoption of facemasks, but the gains could be significant.”

̽��ֱ��new coronavirus is transmitted through airborne droplets loaded with SARS-CoV-2 particles that get exhaled by infectious people, particularly when talking, coughing or sneezing.

For the latest study, Cambridge researchers worked to link the dynamics of spread between individuals with population-level models, assessing varying degrees of facemask adoption combined with periods of lockdown.

̽��ֱ��modelling included the different stages of infection, and transmission via surfaces as well as air. Researchers also considered negative aspects of mask use, such as increased face touching.

̽��ֱ��reproduction or ‘R’ number – the number of people an infected individual passes the virus onto – needs to stay below 1.0 for the pandemic to slow.

̽��ֱ��study found that if people wear masks whenever they are in public it is twice as effective at reducing ‘R’ than if masks are only worn after symptoms appear.

In all modelling scenarios, routine facemask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R less than 1.0, flattening future disease waves and allowing less-stringent lockdowns.

Viral spread reduced further as more people adopted masks when in public. 100% mask adoption combined with on/off lockdowns prevented any further disease resurgence for the 18 months required for a possible vaccine.

̽��ֱ��models suggest that – while the sooner the better – a policy of total facemask adoption can still prevent a second wave even if it isn’t instigated until 120 days after an epidemic begins (defined as the first 100 cases).

̽��ֱ��team investigated the varying effectiveness of facemasks. Previous research shows that even homemade masks made from cotton t-shirts or dishcloths can prove 90% effective at preventing transmission.

̽��ֱ��study suggests that an entire population wearing masks of just 75% effectiveness can bring a very high ‘R’ number of 4.0 (the UK was close to this before lockdown) all the way down to under 1.0, even without aid of lockdowns.

In fact, masks that only capture a mere 50% of exhaled droplets would still provide a 'population-level benefit', even if they quadrupled the wearer’s own contamination risk through frequent face touching and mask adjustment – a highly unlikely scenario.

̽��ֱ��researchers point out that crude homemade masks primarily reduce disease spread by catching the wearer’s own virus particles, breathed directly into fabric, whereas inhaled air is often sucked in around the exposed sides of the mask.

“There is a common perception that wearing a facemask means you consider others a danger,” said Professor John Colvin, coauthor from the ̽��ֱ�� of Greenwich. “In fact, by wearing a mask you are primarily protecting others from yourself.”

“Cultural and even political issues may stop people wearing facemasks, so the message needs to be clear: my mask protects you, your mask protects me.”

“In the UK, the approach to facemasks should go further than just public transport. ̽��ֱ��most effective way to restart daily life is to encourage everyone to wear some kind of mask whenever they are in public,” Colvin said.

Professor Chris Gilligan, coauthor from Cambridge’s Epidemiology and Modelling Group in the Department of Plant Sciences, added: “These messages will be vital if the disease takes hold in the developing world, where large numbers of people are resource poor, but homemade masks are a cheap and effective technology.”

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Even basic homemade masks can significantly reduce transmission if enough people wear them when in public, according to latest modelling. Researchers call for information campaigns that encourage the making and wearing of facemasks.

We have little to lose from the widespread adoption of facemasks, but the gains could be significant

Renata Retkute

Mike Licht

Wear a mask

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Study identifies likely scenarios for global spread of devastating crop disease

fpjl2 — Mon, 25 Sep 2017 10:30:40 +0000

Stem rust, named for the blackening pustules that infect plant stems, caused devastating crop epidemics and famine for centuries before being tamed by fungicides and resistance genes.

Since the turn of the century, however, aggressive new strains have emerged – such as 'Ug99', first detected in Uganda in 1999 – that infect widely grown varieties of wheat. These diseases threaten to disperse trillions of pathogenic fungal spores on winds across countries and continents.

̽��ֱ��fear is that these airborne and highly virulent strains could spread from known sites to some of the world's most important 'breadbasket' regions, such as the Punjab in South Asia, where they have yet to be detected.

Now, a team of scientists of the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge, the UK Met Office and CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre) have adapted modelling systems previously used to forecast, ash dispersal from erupting volcanoes and radiation from nuclear accidents (NAME), to predict when and how Ug99 and other such strains are most likely to spread.

̽��ֱ��research, published today in the journal Nature Plants, quantifies for the first time the circumstances – routes, timings and outbreak sizes – under which dangerous strains of stem rust pose a threat from long-distance dispersal out of East Africa to the large wheat-producing areas in India and Pakistan.

̽��ֱ��results highlight the role of Yemen as a potential 'stepping stone' for the transmission of the disease between continents. ̽��ֱ��key scenario for disease spread is from Yemen directly to Pakistan or India. In case of a large outbreak in Eastern Yemen results indicate a 30% chance for transmission to occur.

Another important scenario for wheat rust spread is from Yemen through Middle Eastern countries, in particular Iran, to Central and South Asia. If Iran were to suffer a moderate outbreak of Ug99 – more than 1000 hectares – then spores would likely spread to Afghanistan, and from there potentially further to the northern plains of Pakistan and India. However, transmission along this route is restricted to a relatively short time-window in March and April, before wheat is typically harvested in South Asia.

"New races of wheat rust are threatening wheat worldwide, and we need to know which areas are at risk," said senior author Prof Chris Gilligan, from Cambridge's Department of Plant Sciences.

"From our work, we now believe that if we start to see Ug99 or other new wheat rust strains take hold in Yemen in early spring then action must be taken immediately to mitigate the risk of further spread."

However, the modelling work also offers some encouraging news: the airborne transmission of the disease from East African countries directly to South Asia is highly unlikely, with transmission events possible only on less than one day a year.

̽��ֱ��scientific team used field disease surveys from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre and weather data from the UK Met Office as key input for the modelling framework.

"This research has allowed us to obtain the first quantitative estimates of long-term airborne spore transmission frequencies for different outbreak scenarios. We compiled risk assessments for pathogen dispersal from key disease locations to important wheat-producing countries. These assessments can effectively inform surveillance and control strategies," said Cambridge's Marcel Meyer, the study's first author.

̽��ֱ��team say their work, including 3-D spore dispersal animations and a catalogue of dispersal trends (indicating likely directions, frequencies, pathogen loads), provides new ways to raise awareness, communicate risks, and inform agricultural stakeholders.

Their modelling framework can be applied as a tool to analyse risks in case new disease strains should be uncovered in other geographic areas. This has already helped in estimating dispersal risks from sites of other diseases in Europe and Siberia. In ongoing work the team is developing an Early Warning System forecasting rust risk in Ethiopia, East Africa's largest wheat producing country.

" ̽��ֱ��combined expertise from plant sciences and atmospheric dispersion sciences has delivered ground breaking tools that highlight the risks, and support the management of the devastating potential of these diseases," said Dr Matthew Hort, co-author from the UK's Met Office.

New research reveals for the first time the most likely months and routes for the spread of new strains of airborne ‘wheat stem rust’ that may endanger global food security by ravaging wheat production across Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the wider world.

New races of wheat rust are threatening wheat worldwide, and we need to know which areas are at risk

Chris Gilligan

Left: CIMMYT. right: Matthew Hort.

Left: Wheat stem rust. Right: Network map of the atmospheric transmission of spores.

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

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California’s sudden oak death epidemic now ‘unstoppable’ and new epidemics must be managed earlier

jeh98 — Mon, 02 May 2016 19:02:00 +0000

Sudden oak death – caused by Phytophthora ramorum, a fungus-like pathogen related to potato blight – has killed millions of trees over hundreds of square kilometres of forest in California. First detected near San Francisco in 1995, it spread north through coastal California, devastating the region’s iconic oak and tanoak forests. In 2002 a strain of the pathogen appeared in the south west of England, affecting shrubs but not oaks, since English species of oak are not susceptible. In 2009 the UK strain started killing larch – an important tree crop – and has since spread widely across the UK.

In a study published today in PNAS, researchers from the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge have used mathematical modelling to show that stopping or even slowing the spread of P. ramorum in California is now not possible, and indeed has been impossible for a number of years.

Treating trees with chemicals is not practical or cost-effective on the scales that would be necessary for an established forest epidemic. Currently the only option for controlling the disease is to cut down infected trees, together with neighbouring trees that are likely to be infected but may not yet show symptoms. “By comparing the performance of a large number of potential strategies, modelling can tell us where and how to start chopping down trees to manage the disease over very large areas,” explains Dr Nik Cunniffe, lead author from Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences.

̽��ֱ��authors say that preventing the disease from spreading to large parts of California could have been possible if management had been started in 2002. Before 2002 not enough was known about the pathogen to begin managing the disease. Their modelling also offers new strategies for more effectively controlling inevitable future epidemics.

In close liaison with colleagues from DEFRA and the Forestry Commission, models developed in Cambridge are already an integral part of the management programme for the P. ramorum epidemic in the UK. ̽��ֱ��models are used to predict where the disease is likely to spread, how it can be effectively detected and how control strategies can be optimised.

Sudden oak death is known to affect over one hundred species of tree and shrub, presenting a significant risk to the biodiversity of many ecosystems. ̽��ֱ��death of large numbers of trees also exacerbates the fire risk in California when fallen trees are left to dry out. There is now concern that the disease may spread to the Appalachian Mountains, putting an even larger area of trees at risk.

“Our study is the first major retrospective analysis of how the sudden oak death epidemic in California could have been managed, and also the first to show how to deal with a forest epidemic of this magnitude,” explains Cunniffe.

“Even if huge amounts of money were to be invested to stop the epidemic starting today, the results of our model show this cannot lead to successful control for any plausible management budget. We therefore wanted to know whether it could have been contained if a carefully-optimised strategy had been introduced sooner. Our model showed that, with a very high level of investment starting in 2002, the disease could not have been eradicated, but its spread could have been slowed and the area affected greatly reduced.”

̽��ֱ��model also indicates how policymakers might better plan and deploy control when future epidemics emerge.

“It is a tool by which we can make a better job next time, because it is inevitable that there will be a next time,” says Professor Chris Gilligan, senior author and also from the Department of Plant Sciences. “With this sort of epidemic there will always be more sites to treat than can be afforded. Our model shows when and where control is most effective at different stages throughout a developing epidemic so that resources can be better targeted.”

“It can be tempting for authorities to start cutting down trees at the core of the infected area, but for this epidemic our research shows that this could be the worst thing to do, because susceptible vegetation will simply grow back and become infected again,” explains Cunniffe.

Cunniffe, Gilligan and colleagues found that instead treating the ‘wave-front’ – on and ahead of the epidemic in the direction that disease is spreading – is a more effective method of control. They also found that ‘front-loading’ the budget to treat very heavily and earlier on in the epidemic would greatly improve the likelihood of success.

“Unlike other epidemic models, ours takes account of the uncertainty in how ecological systems will respond and how the available budget may change, allowing us to investigate the likelihood of success and risks of failure of different strategies at different points after an epidemic emerges,” says Gilligan.

“Whenever a new epidemic emerges, controlling it becomes a question of how long it takes for us to have enough information to recognise that there is a problem and then to make decisions about how to deal with it. In the past we have been starting from scratch with each new pathogen, but the insight generated by this modelling puts us in a better position for dealing with future epidemics,” he adds.

̽��ֱ��researchers say that the next step in dealing with well-established epidemics such as sudden oak death is to investigate how to protect particularly valuable areas within an epidemic that – as they have demonstrated – is already too big to be stopped.

̽��ֱ��methodology is already being applied to create related models for diseases that threaten food security in Africa, such as pathogens that attack wheat and cassava.

This research was enabled by funding from the BBSRC, DEFRA, NSF, USDA and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.

Inset image: Extensive control starting in 2002 could have greatly slowed epidemic spread (map shows risk of infection in 2030 under no control on left; control on and ahead of wave-front on right) (Nik Cunniffe).

New research shows the sudden oak death epidemic in California cannot now be stopped, but that its tremendous ecological and economic impacts could have been greatly reduced if control had been started earlier. ̽��ֱ��research also identifies new strategies to enhance control of future epidemics, including identifying where and how to fell trees, as “there will be a next time”.

It is a tool by which we can make a better job next time, because it is inevitable that there will be a next time

Professor Chris Gilligan

David Rizzo

Large-scale tree mortality in northern Sonoma County, California

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

Yes

Cambridge people named in the Queen's Birthday Honours list

th288 — Sat, 13 Jun 2015 05:10:01 +0000

Professor Harshad Kumar Dharamshi Bhadeshia FRS FREng (pictured centre) is the Tata Steel Professor of Metallurgy in the Department of Materials Science and Metallurgy and Director of the SKF Steel Technology Centre. His work is focused on transformation theory, which is concerned with the arrangement of atoms in a solid, in order to enable the invention of new iron alloys. He has been appointed a Knight Bachelor for services to Science and Technology.

Professor Christopher Munro Clark (pictured right) is the Regius Professor of History. His research work is centred on the history of 19th-century Germany and continental Europe. He has published numerous studies and books relating to the political and cultural history of religion, Kaiser Willhelm II, and the history of Prussia. He has been appointed a Knight Bachelor for services to British German relations.

Archibald Hugh Duberly, CBE is the Lord-Lieutenant of Cambridgeshire and a Senior Member of Wolfson College. He has been appointed a KCVO.

Professor Christopher Aidan Gilligan (pictured left) is the Head of the Epidemiology and Modelling Group in the Department of Plant Sciences. His work is focused on developing and testing a theoretical framework to understand the mechanisms that control invasion, persistence, scaling and variability of epidemics within changing agricultural and natural landscapes. He is also a Trustee of the Natural History Museum, by Prime Ministerial appointment. He has been appointed CBE for services to plant health in the field of epidemiology.

Professor Elizabeth Anne Howlett Hall is Professor of Analytical Biotechnology and Head of the Cambridge Analytical Biotechnology Group in the Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology. Her research work is into heterogenous analytical systems with a primary focus on molecular sensors and directed towards environmental, medical and industrial application. She is also the Chair of Disability Snowsports UK. She has been appointed CBE for services to higher education and to sport.

Professor Anthony John Holland is Professor of the Psychiatry of Learning Disabilities and Head of the Cambridge Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Research Group in the Department of Psychiatry. His main areas of research include the relationship between genetic syndromes and associated psychiatric and behavioural disorders, and clinico-legal studies. He is also Chair in Learning Disabilities at the Health Foundation, Fellow and Vice-President of the International Association for the Scientific Study of Intellectual Disability, President of the UK Prader-Willi Association, and President of Cambridge MENCAP. He has been appointed CBE for services to psychiatry.

Professor James Anthony Jackson FRS is Professor of Active Tectonics and Head of the Department of Earth Sciences. His work exploits techniques in earthquake source seismology, geomorphology, space geodesy and remote sensing to examine how the continents are deforming today on all scales: from the details of the fault rupture in single earthquakes, to how that faulting has created the local geomorphology and structure, to how regional fault patterns and motions can accommodate deformation of vast continental areas. He is also part of the Dynamic Earth and Geohazards Group, and the lead Principal Investigator on the Earthquakes Without Frontiers Project – a joint NERC-ESRC consortium supporting a partnership of physical and social scientists working to help increase resilience to earthquakes in countries in Asia. He has been apointed CBE for services to environmental science.

Seven distinguished members of the ̽��ֱ�� have been named in the Queen’s Birthday Honours list announced today.

̽��ֱ��text in this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. For image use please see separate credits above.

Yes

Experts advocate for stronger measures to protect trees and other plants from pests and pathogens

gm349 — Mon, 20 May 2013 09:36:58 +0000

As the fungus responsible for ash dieback continues to devastate ash tree populations throughout the UK and other threats to the countryside continue to emerge, experts convened by Defra are advocating for stronger measures to protect the UK’s trees and plants.

̽��ֱ��independent Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity Expert Taskforce was established by Defra’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Ian Boyd, late last year to address the current and emerging threats to the UK’s trees and plants. Working with an advisory group made up of various stakeholder organisations, to include industry, Defra, and the Forestry Commission as well as Border Force, the taskforce is proposing a number of initiatives aimed at minimising the risk of plant pests and diseases.

Professor Chris Gilligan, chair of the taskforce and Professor of Mathematical Biology and Head of the School of Biological Sciences at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge, said: “ ̽��ֱ��UK needs to be better prepared for threats to plant health. In the last few years alone, several previously unknown pests and pathogens have emerged, posing significant risks to the UK’s crops as well as trees in woodlands, commercial forests and in urban environments.

“By increasing our understanding of what pests and diseases are the biggest threats and how best to mitigate their impact, we can minimise potentially devastating outbreaks.”

̽��ֱ��scientists believe that the threats have increased because of globalisation in trade and travel and the subsequent escalation in volume and diversity of plants and plant products entering the UK, all of which potentially harbour plant pests and pathogens. Once established, pests and pathogens can wreak havoc on biodiversity, timber and crop production, the landscape and, in certain circumstances, human health. (In addition to Chalara, recent examples include horse chestnut leaf mining moth, oak processionary moth, bleeding canker of horse chestnut and Dothistroma needle blight on pines.)

Professor Charles Godfray, a member of the taskforce from the ̽��ֱ�� of Oxford’s Zoology Department & Oxford Martin School said: “Globalisation poses many challenges including to the health of our trees and other plants; the taskforce has tried to suggest proportionate measures that will materially lessen the risks to the nation’s trees and forests without adding unnecessary barriers to trade and commerce.”

Although the remit was to focus on trees and related woody species, the taskforce noted that many of the principles addressed in recommendations for tree health are applicable to pests and diseases that affect other plants (including agricultural, horticultural and biomass crops, indigenous vegetation and ornamental plants).

Taskforce recommendations

Currently, there are numerous risk assessments for individual pests and pathogens at both the national and European level. ̽��ֱ��taskforce recommends a single national Risk Register for plant health. This new UK Plant Health Risk Register would serve to identify and prioritise pests and pathogens that pose a threat to the UK and to identify what actions must be taken should the threat materialise.

̽��ֱ��taskforce is also advocating an individual at a senior level who is responsible for overseeing the UK Plant Health Risk Register and providing leadership for managing those risks. ̽��ֱ��Chief Plant Health Officer would work in a similar fashion as the Chief Veterinary Officer, who oversees animal-related emergencies.

̽��ֱ��appointee would also be responsible for developing and implementing procedures for preparedness and contingency planning to predict, monitor and control the spread of pests and pathogens. There was also a recommendation that current governance and legislation needed to be reviewed, simplified and strengthened.

Because of globalisation, more and more people and goods are travelling greater distances at an increasingly greater rate. As a result, there is a significant increase in the risk of introducing non-native pests and pathogens. In order to minimise the risks of introduction at the border, the taskforce has made several recommendations regarding the import of trees and other plants. They propose that no plant material for personal use be imported from outside the EU.

̽��ֱ��import of live plants, foliage, branches and other plant parts has seen a 71 per cent increase since 1999, dramatically increasing the risk a pathogen or pest might be introduced. Therefore they also propose the Plant Passport scheme, which currently only applies to some plants associated with pests and pathogens, be strengthened and also applied to seeds as a means of ensuring traceability (showing all ports of calls within the EU and last port before entry to the EU).

Dr Jens-Georg Unger, taskforce member and Head of the Institute for National and International Plant Health in Germany, said: “There have been too many introductions of serious new pests in recent years into EU countries - improvements are needed urgently. Efficient protection can only be achieved by more complete and faster exchange of information between countries and more focussed and better coordinated action in all EU countries. ̽��ֱ��UK taskforce is an extremely important step for the initiation of such improvements on the national and the EU level.”

Additional recommendations include improving the use of epidemiological intelligence from EU/other regions and work to improve the EU regulations concerned with tree health and plant biosecurity, developing a modern, user-friendly, system to provide quick and intelligent access to information about tree health and plant biosecurity, and addressing key skills shortages.

For more information about this story, please contact: Genevieve Maul, Office of Communications, ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge. Email: Genevieve.Maul@admin.cam.ac.uk; Tel: 01223 765542.

Ash dieback, caused by the Chalara fungus, prompts re-evaluation of current protocols to protect UK trees and other plants; taskforce recommends threats to plant health be taken as seriously as animal disease

̽��ֱ��UK needs to be better prepared for threats to plant health. In the last few years alone, several previously unknown pests and pathogens have emerged, posing significant risks to the UK’s crops as well as trees in woodlands, commercial forests and in urban environments.

Professor Chris Gilligan, chair of the taskforce and Professor of Mathematical Biology and Head of the School of Biological Sciences at the ̽��ֱ�� of Cambridge

Forestry Commission

Drothistroma needle blight on pines

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